Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion — League One 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
B. Johnson 84'
V. Adeboyejo 29' (pen)
12/3/2022League OneLeague One · Round 20Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%
×Draw28%
Burton Albion28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Burton Albion
1.00

Milton Keynes Dons creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 54 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.27
Burton Albion
0.87

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.14
Burton Albion
1.37

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
72%
Milton Keynes Dons or Burton Albion
72%
Draw or Burton Albion
56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
73%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
38%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
15%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
63%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
26%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
61%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Burton Albion defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Burton Albion attack 0.87 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
44%
level
28%
Burton Albion scores more
28%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. Borthwick-JacksonBurton AlbionBurton Albion · M
7.7

Match Events

29'
V. AdeboyejoPenalty
37'
L. Barry← D. Burns
45+5'
Daniel Harvie
64'
Tyler Onyango
67'
C. Gilligan← T. Onyango
73'
W. Grigg← C. Grant
79'
B. Johnson← J. McEachran
84'
J. Dodoo← B. Kamwa
84'
B. Johnson↳ D. Devoy
90+1'
Ben Garratt

Possession

71%Milton

Shots

18Milton

Pass accuracy

55%Milton

Statistics

MiltonBurton
Overview
71%Possession29%
18Total Shots8
11Corners2
7Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots8
3On Target3
6Off Target2
9Blocked3
11Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
71%Possession29%
626Total Passes261
517Accurate Passes181
83%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in League One on December 3, 2022.

Goals: V. Adeboyejo (29' pen), B. Johnson (84').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (71%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.