Burton Albion 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons

Burton Albion

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

5/7/2023

League One · Round 46Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Burton Albion38%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Burton Albion

1.34

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 28 away

1.15

creates per match

1.18

1.36

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.15

Milton Keynes Dons

1.18

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.36

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

65%

Burton Albion or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

62%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

17%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

74%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

39%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

15%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

72%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

52%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.15 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.18 + Burton Albion defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burton Albion scores more

38%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

35%

Burton Albion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

C. MacGillivray

Burton Albion · G

8.3

Match Events

32'

Josh McEachran

52'

J. Walker← D. Taylor

53'

Adedeji Oshilaja

58'

D. Devoy← J. McEachran

63'

C. Kirk← T. Hamer

63'

N. Holland← C. Grant

79'

W. Grigg← S. Kaikai

80'

S. Winnall← M. Carayol

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonMilton

Overview

41%Possession59%

5Total Shots31

3Corners12

13Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots31

2On Target6

2Off Target12

1Blocked13

3Inside Box23

2Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

292Total Passes412

187Accurate Passes317

64%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3