Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Burton Albion

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burton Albion

M. Watters 65'

11/20/2021

League One · Round 18Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%

×Draw28%

Burton Albion28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

Milton Keynes Dons

1.32

Burton Albion

1.00

Milton Keynes Dons creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 54 away

1.27

creates per match

0.87

1.14

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Burton Albion

0.87

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.14

Burton Albion

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

72%

Milton Keynes Dons or Burton Albion

72%

Draw or Burton Albion

56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

20%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

73%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

38%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

15%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

63%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

26%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

61%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Burton Albion defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Burton Albion attack 0.87 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

44%

level

28%

Burton Albion scores more

28%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Lewington

Milton Keynes Dons · D

7.6

Match Events

14'

Thomas Hamer

45+6'

David Kasumu

45+2'

K. Hemmings← J. Maddox

49'

Kane Hemmings

64'

H. Boateng← J. McEachran

65'

M. Watters↳ M. O'Riley

74'

Michael Mancienne

80'

O. Patrick← J. Powell

80'

C. Lakin← M. Mancienne

84'

M. Eisa← M. Watters

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonBurton

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots7

2Corners11

5Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target0

5Off Target5

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

369Total Passes429

245Accurate Passes314

66%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1