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Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
10/5/2019League OneLeague One · Round 12Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons45%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.46
Burton Albion
1.11

Milton Keynes Dons creates 32% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 179 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.31
Burton Albion
1.09

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.14
Burton Albion
1.60

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
71%
Milton Keynes Dons or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
55%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
22%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
77%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
43%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
18%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
67%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
30%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
61%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 93 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.31 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
45%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
29%

Milton Keynes Dons at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Milton Keynes Dons 0–3 Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 in League One on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.