Millwall 3–0 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Watford

T. Bradshaw 33', 26', 8'

10/19/2022

Championship · Round 16The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Millwall43%

×Draw28%

Watford29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Millwall

1.32

Watford

1.02

Millwall creates 29% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 58 away

1.27

creates per match

1.01

1.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Millwall

1.27

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Watford

1.38

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Millwall-0.10scores less

Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Watford 1+ goals

64%

Watford 2+ goals

27%

Watford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

60%

Watford (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.03 · 59 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.27 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Watford attack 1.01 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more

43%

level

28%

Watford scores more

29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Bradshaw

Millwall · F

9.3

Match Events

8'

T. Bradshaw

18'

E. Kayembe← I. Louza

22'

Keinan Davis

26'

T. Bradshaw↳ M. Bennett

33'

T. Bradshaw↳ J. Cooper

46'

João Pedro← H. Choudhury

46'

S. Kalu← K. Sema

56'

Hassane Kamara

60'

C. Styles← M. Bennett

74'

V. Bayo← K. Davis

79'

G. Honeyman← Z. Flemming

79'

B. Afobe← T. Bradshaw

79'

J. Shackleton← A. Voglsammer

89'

T. Burey← S. Malone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallWatford

Overview

34%Possession66%

12Total Shots12

2Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target1

5Off Target6

3Blocked5

10Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

256Total Passes495

141Accurate Passes391

55%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0