Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Millwall vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Millwall
Millwall
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
10/1/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millwall35%
×Draw27%
Coventry38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.23
Coventry
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.26
Coventry
1.36

allows per match

Millwall
1.21
Coventry
1.21

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less
Coventry+0.19scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
62%
Millwall or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
65%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
71%
Millwall 2+ goals
35%
Millwall 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
37%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
48%
Coventry (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 13 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Coventry defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Coventry attack 1.36 + Millwall defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more
35%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millwall vs Coventry

Coventry beat Millwall 4-0 in Championship on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at The Den in London.