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Coventry vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Coventry
Coventry
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
12/29/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Coventry40%
×Draw25%
Millwall35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.51
Millwall
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.69
Millwall
1.45

allows per match

Coventry
1.30
Millwall
1.33

finishing

Coventry+0.14scores more
Millwall-0.21scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
65%
Coventry or Millwall
75%
Draw or Millwall
60%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
20%
Millwall wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
78%
Coventry 2+ goals
44%
Coventry 3+ goals
19%
Millwall 1+ goals
75%
Millwall 2+ goals
40%
Millwall 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
54%
Millwall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.30 · 12 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.69 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.51

Millwall attack 1.45 + Coventry defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coventry scores more
40%
level
25%
Millwall scores more
35%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Coventry 0–0 Millwall

Coventry and Millwall drew 0-0 in Championship on December 29, 2024.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.