Millwall 0–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coventry

E. Mason-Clark 63'

12/7/2024

Championship · Round 19The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Millwall38%

×Draw27%

Coventry34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Millwall

1.27

Coventry

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

1.39

creates per match

1.41

0.97

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Millwall

1.39

Coventry

1.41

allows per match

Millwall

0.97

Coventry

1.15

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.07on par

Coventry-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

66%

Millwall or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

62%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Coventry wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

72%

Millwall 2+ goals

36%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

70%

Coventry 2+ goals

33%

Coventry 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

53%

Coventry (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.15 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.39 + Coventry defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.41 + Millwall defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more

38%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

34%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Leonard

Millwall · D

7.7

Match Events

50'

Jake Bidwell

51'

Ryan Leonard

61'

J. Eccles← V. Torp

61'

N. Bassette← E. Simms

63'

E. Mason-Clark↳ J. Rudoni

64'

A. Emakhu← G. Honeyman

64'

M. Ivanović← D. Watmore

74'

J. Dasilva← J. Bidwell

74'

B. Thomas-Asante← E. Mason-Clark

80'

B. Mitchell← C. De Norre

80'

R. Wintle← G. Saville

82'

Danny McNamara

86'

T. Bradshaw← D. McNamara

90+5'

Fábio Tavares← T. Sakamoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallCoventry

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots14

0.48Expected Goals (xG)1.77

7Corners8

11Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots14

0On Target3

5Off Target5

4Blocked6

7Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

301Total Passes522

197Accurate Passes415

65%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Championship: Millwall 0–1 Coventry

Coventry beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on December 7, 2024.

Goals: E. Mason-Clark (63').

Coventry controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 0–1 Coventry