Millwall 3–2 Coventry: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Coventry

G. Saville 85'

G. Honeyman 53'

J. Cooper 36'

M. Godden 28'

K. McFadzean 2'

8/13/2022

Championship · Round 3The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Millwall36%

×Draw27%

Coventry37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.25

Millwall

1.24

Coventry

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

1.25

creates per match

1.47

1.02

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Coventry

1.47

allows per match

Millwall

1.02

Coventry

1.23

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Millwall-0.10scores less

Coventry+0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

63%

Millwall or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

64%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

16%

Coventry wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

35%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Coventry 1+ goals

71%

Coventry 2+ goals

36%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

50%

Coventry (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Coventry attack 1.47 + Millwall defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more

36%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

G. Honeyman

Millwall · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

K. McFadzean↳ M. Godden

12'

T. Burey← M. Bennett

18'

Jamie Shackleton

28'

M. Godden↳ J. Bidwell

30'

36'

37'

53'

63'

64'

67'

67'

68'

81'

G. Saville← G. Honeyman

81'

R. Leonard← C. Cresswell

82'

Kyle McFadzean

85'

G. Saville↳ B. Afobe

89'

Fábio Tavares← M. Godden

89'

J. Eccles← J. Panzo

90'

G. Evans← J. Shackleton

90'

I. Olaofe← B. Afobe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallCoventry

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots17

3Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots17

6On Target7

5Off Target6

2Blocked4

11Inside Box8

2Outside Box9

Passing

45%Possession55%

317Total Passes410

215Accurate Passes297

68%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Millwall vs Coventry

Millwall beat Coventry 3-2 in Championship on August 13, 2022.

Goals: K. McFadzean (2'), M. Godden (28'), J. Cooper (36'), G. Honeyman (53'), G. Saville (85').

Coventry controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Millwall vs Coventry