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Millwall vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
G. Saville 21'
V. Gyökeres 9'
9/18/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Millwall37%
×Draw27%
Coventry36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.24
Coventry
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.26
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

Millwall
1.03
Coventry
1.22

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
64%
Millwall or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
63%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
71%
Millwall 2+ goals
35%
Millwall 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
71%
Coventry 2+ goals
35%
Coventry 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
50%
Coventry (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Coventry attack 1.44 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more
37%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
36%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
V. GyökeresCoventryCoventry · F
8.0

Match Events

9'
V. Gyökeres
21'
G. Saville↳ J. Wallace
52'
George Saville
62'
Murray Wallace
62'
M. Rose← J. Clarke-Salter
69'
B. Mitchell← M. Smith
81'
C. Mahoney← M. Kieftenbeld
81'
M. Bennett← T. Bradshaw
82'
T. Walker← M. Godden
82'
J. Allen← C. OHare

Possession

41%Millwall

Shots

17Millwall

Pass accuracy

44%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallCoventry
Overview
41%Possession59%
17Total Shots15
8Corners4
12Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots15
4On Target3
6Off Target9
7Blocked3
13Inside Box10
4Outside Box5
Passing
41%Possession59%
323Total Passes482
208Accurate Passes389
64%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Championship: Millwall 1–1 Coventry

Millwall and Coventry drew 1-1 in Championship on September 18, 2021.

Goals: V. Gyökeres (9'), G. Saville (21').

Coventry controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at The Den in London.