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Millwall vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Coventry
Coventry
J. Wallace 74' (pen)
G. Hamer 26'
J. Cooper 20' (OG)
1/2/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Millwall37%
×Draw27%
Coventry36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.24
Coventry
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.26
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

Millwall
1.03
Coventry
1.22

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
64%
Millwall or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
63%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
71%
Millwall 2+ goals
35%
Millwall 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
71%
Coventry 2+ goals
35%
Coventry 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
50%
Coventry (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Coventry attack 1.44 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more
37%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
36%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
G. HamerCoventryCoventry · M
8.5

Match Events

15'
M. Biamou← M. Godden
20'
J. CooperOwn goal
26'
G. Hamer
45'
Ryan Woods
46'
T. Parrott← J. Böðvarsson
46'
S. Malone← M. Bennett
60'
Murray Wallace
67'
R. Giles← J. Shipley
68'
K. Zohorè← T. Bradshaw
74'
J. WallacePenalty
86'
M. Smith← S. Williams
86'
T. Burey← M. Romeo
90'
Murray Wallace
90'
Murray Wallace
90'
Leo Østigård

Possession

49%Millwall

Shots

6Millwall

Pass accuracy

49%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallCoventry
Overview
49%Possession51%
6Total Shots17
3Corners9
18Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots17
3On Target5
1Off Target8
2Blocked4
3Inside Box12
3Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
454Total Passes459
311Accurate Passes334
69%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Championship: Millwall 1–2 Coventry

Coventry beat Millwall 2-1 in Championship on January 2, 2021.

Goals: J. Cooper (20' o.g.), G. Hamer (26'), J. Wallace (74' pen).

Coventry controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Den in London.