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Millwall vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
M. Smith 90+1'
S. Hutchinson 6'
J. Leko 51'
11/9/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Millwall47%
×Draw27%
Charlton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.40
Charlton
0.97

Millwall creates 44% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 21 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
74%
Millwall or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
23%
Charlton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
75%
Millwall 2+ goals
41%
Millwall 3+ goals
17%
Charlton 1+ goals
62%
Charlton 2+ goals
25%
Charlton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
64%
Charlton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Charlton attack 0.89 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more
47%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
26%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. SmithMillwallMillwall · F
7.4

Match Events

6'
S. Hutchinson↳ S. Williams
41'
Darren Pratley
45'
Jayson Molumby
51'
J. Leko↳ N. Sarr
67'
B. Kayal← D. Pratley
78'
C. Mahoney← J. Böðvarsson
84'
G. Lapslie← J. Leko
86'
A. O'Brien← B. Thompson
86'
M. Smith← T. Bradshaw
90+1'
M. Smith↳ J. Wallace

Possession

41%Millwall

Shots

8Millwall

Pass accuracy

48%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallCharlton
Overview
41%Possession59%
8Total Shots6
8Corners3
14Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots6
5On Target5
1Off Target1
2Blocked0
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box2
Passing
41%Possession59%
291Total Passes436
200Accurate Passes332
69%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Millwall vs Charlton

Millwall beat Charlton 2-1 in Championship on November 9, 2019.

Goals: S. Hutchinson (6'), J. Leko (51'), M. Smith (90+1').

Charlton controlled possession (59%) and registered 6 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Den in London.