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Charlton vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
S. Carey 40'
R. Bangura-Williams 88'
9/13/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Charlton37%
×Draw26%
Millwall37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.35
Millwall
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.30
Millwall
1.43

allows per match

Charlton
1.26
Millwall
1.40

finishing

Charlton-0.16scores less
Millwall-0.29scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
63%
Charlton or Millwall
74%
Draw or Millwall
63%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
17%
Millwall wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
74%
Charlton 2+ goals
39%
Charlton 3+ goals
15%
Millwall 1+ goals
74%
Millwall 2+ goals
39%
Millwall 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
50%
Millwall (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 7 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.40 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.30 + Millwall defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Millwall attack 1.43 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Charlton scores more
37%
level
26%
Millwall scores more
37%

Charlton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
S. CareyCharltonCharlton · M
7.9

Match Events

40'
S. Carey
54'
Tristan Crama
55'
Kayne Ramsay
61'
J. Bree← R. Apter
61'
M. Leaburn← C. Kelman
65'
Lloyd Jones
66'
D. Kelly← M. Ivanovic
66'
R. Bangura-Williams← C. Neghli
74'
Kayne Ramsay
74'
Kayne Ramsay
80'
T. Ballo← R. Leonard
83'
R. Burke← T. Campbell
88'
R. Bangura-Williams
90'
W. Harding← A. Emakhu

Possession

36%Charlton

Shots

14Charlton

Pass accuracy

44%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonMillwall
Overview
36%Possession64%
14Total Shots15
0.73Expected Goals (xG)1.03
3Corners4
12Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots15
3On Target3
6Off Target4
5Blocked8
10Inside Box10
4Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
230Total Passes420
126Accurate Passes297
55%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-0.57Goals Prevented-0.57
Discipline
12Fouls18
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Charlton vs Millwall

Charlton and Millwall drew 1-1 in Championship on September 13, 2025.

Goals: S. Carey (40'), R. Bangura-Williams (88').

Millwall controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Valley in London.