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Charlton vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
7/3/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Charlton34%
×Draw26%
Millwall40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.25
Millwall
1.39

Millwall creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.17
Millwall
1.45

allows per match

Charlton
1.33
Millwall
1.33

finishing

Charlton-0.06on par
Millwall-0.21scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
60%
Charlton or Millwall
74%
Draw or Millwall
66%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
14%
Millwall wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
71%
Charlton 2+ goals
36%
Charlton 3+ goals
13%
Millwall 1+ goals
75%
Millwall 2+ goals
40%
Millwall 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
46%
Millwall (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.17 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Millwall attack 1.45 + Charlton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more
34%
level
26%
Millwall scores more
40%

Millwall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Charlton 0–1 Millwall

Millwall beat Charlton 1-0 in Championship on July 3, 2020.

The match was played at The Valley in London.