Millwall 2–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cardiff

B. Afobe 90'

C. Cresswell 63'

9/3/2022

Championship · Round 8The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Millwall45%

×Draw28%

Cardiff27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.95

Millwall

1.33

Cardiff

0.95

Millwall creates 40% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 37 away

1.25

creates per match

0.86

1.04

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Cardiff

0.86

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Cardiff

1.41

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Cardiff+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

73%

Millwall or Cardiff

72%

Draw or Cardiff

55%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

21%

Cardiff wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Cardiff 1+ goals

61%

Cardiff 2+ goals

25%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

63%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Cardiff defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cardiff attack 0.86 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Millwall scores more

45%

level

28%

Cardiff scores more

27%

Millwall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Cresswell

Millwall · D

8.9

Match Events

46'

Cédric Kipré

46'

C. Robinson← M. Watters

46'

M. Harris← S. Ojo

48'

C. Cresswell← S. Hutchinson

53'

Mahlon Romeo

62'

T. Burey← T. Bradshaw

62'

S. Malone← G. Saville

62'

B. Afobe← A. Voglsammer

63'

C. Cresswell↳ S. Malone

69'

G. Whyte← J. Philogene

70'

J. Ralls← R. Sawyers

76'

Callum Styles

88'

Murray Wallace

89'

G. Honeyman← Z. Flemming

90'

B. Afobe↳ C. Cresswell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallCardiff

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots12

4Corners6

9Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target2

7Off Target8

2Blocked2

9Inside Box10

7Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

337Total Passes422

249Accurate Passes334

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Championship: Millwall 2–0 Cardiff

Millwall beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on September 3, 2022.

Goals: C. Cresswell (63'), B. Afobe (90').

Cardiff controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 2–0 Cardiff