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Cardiff vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
P. Ng 39'
10/1/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cardiff34%
×Draw29%
Millwall37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.09
Millwall
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.19
Millwall
1.22

allows per match

Cardiff
1.07
Millwall
1.00

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
63%
Cardiff or Millwall
71%
Draw or Millwall
66%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
14%
Millwall wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
66%
Cardiff 2+ goals
30%
Cardiff 3+ goals
10%
Millwall 1+ goals
68%
Millwall 2+ goals
32%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
48%
Millwall (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.19 + Millwall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Millwall attack 1.22 + Cardiff defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more
34%
level
29%
Millwall scores more
37%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
P. NgCardiffCardiff · D
7.9

Match Events

26'
Calum Chambers
39'
P. Ng↳ J. Ralls
62'
C. Willock← A. El Ghazi
62'
Y. Meïté← C. Robinson
62'
M. Ivanović← G. Honeyman
64'
Casper De Norre
75'
O. Azeez← G. Saville
80'
A. Rinomhota← O. Tanner
87'
Jake Cooper
90+1'
Ryan Leonard
90+3'
D. Turnbull← R. Colwill

Possession

49%Cardiff

Shots

10Cardiff

Pass accuracy

51%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffMillwall
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots11
0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.27
5Corners6
14Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots11
5On Target5
4Off Target4
1Blocked2
8Inside Box8
2Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
320Total Passes333
236Accurate Passes236
74%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
0.03Goals Prevented0.03
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Millwall

Cardiff beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on October 1, 2024.

Goals: P. Ng (39').

Millwall controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.