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Cardiff vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
T. Bradshaw 26'
1/21/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cardiff34%
×Draw29%
Millwall37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.09
Millwall
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.19
Millwall
1.22

allows per match

Cardiff
1.07
Millwall
1.00

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
63%
Cardiff or Millwall
71%
Draw or Millwall
66%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
14%
Millwall wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
66%
Cardiff 2+ goals
30%
Cardiff 3+ goals
10%
Millwall 1+ goals
68%
Millwall 2+ goals
32%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
48%
Millwall (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.19 + Millwall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Millwall attack 1.22 + Cardiff defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more
34%
level
29%
Millwall scores more
37%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. CooperMillwallMillwall · D
8.0

Match Events

20'
Tom Bradshaw
26'
T. Bradshaw↳ J. Cooper
28'
Jake Cooper
38'
Andy Rinomhota
62'
Ryan Allsop
63'
R. Leonard← M. Bennett
69'
I. Davies← S. Ojo
69'
J. Ralls← R. Wintle
72'
Cédric Kipré
74'
Callum Styles
79'
A. Voglsammer← G. Honeyman
79'
J. Shackleton← T. Bradshaw
90+1'
S. Malone← C. Styles
90'
C. Cresswell← G. Saville

Possession

59%Cardiff

Shots

22Cardiff

Pass accuracy

55%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffMillwall
Overview
59%Possession41%
22Total Shots15
7Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
22Total Shots15
4On Target6
10Off Target3
8Blocked6
16Inside Box9
6Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
478Total Passes340
369Accurate Passes217
77%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Millwall

Millwall beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on January 21, 2023.

Goals: T. Bradshaw (26').

Cardiff controlled possession (59%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.