Cardiff 1–0 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

D. Goutas 78'

12/9/2023

Championship · Round 20Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cardiff33%

×Draw28%

Millwall39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.24

Cardiff

1.12

Millwall

1.24

Millwall creates 11% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.15

creates per match

1.33

1.15

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Cardiff

1.15

Millwall

1.33

allows per match

Cardiff

1.15

Millwall

1.09

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff-0.48scores less

Millwall-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

61%

Cardiff or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

67%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

13%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

67%

Cardiff 2+ goals

31%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

35%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

46%

Millwall (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.15 + Millwall defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Millwall attack 1.33 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cardiff scores more

33%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

39%

Millwall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Goutas

Cardiff · D

8.0

Match Events

46'

Y. Meïté← I. Ugbo

46'

R. Colwill← C. Robinson

62'

63'

70'

70'

70'

D. Watmore← Z. Flemming

70'

T. Bradshaw← K. Nisbet

78'

D. Goutas↳ J. Ralls

79'

Ryan Leonard

82'

A. Emakhu← R. Longman

89'

E. Adams← M. Siopis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffMillwall

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots10

0.65Expected Goals (xG)1.70

4Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target3

3Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

400Total Passes451

287Accurate Passes342

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Championship: Cardiff 1–0 Millwall

Cardiff beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on December 9, 2023.

Goals: D. Goutas (78').

Millwall controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Cardiff 1–0 Millwall