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Millwall vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
11/21/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Millwall47%
×Draw28%
Cardiff26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.35
Cardiff
0.92

Millwall creates 47% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.34
Cardiff
0.85

allows per match

Millwall
0.99
Cardiff
1.36

finishing

Millwall-0.07on par
Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
74%
Millwall or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
22%
Cardiff wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
74%
Millwall 2+ goals
39%
Millwall 3+ goals
15%
Cardiff 1+ goals
60%
Cardiff 2+ goals
23%
Cardiff 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
65%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 37 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.34 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Millwall defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more
47%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
26%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Millwall 1–1 Cardiff

Millwall and Cardiff drew 1-1 in Championship on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at The Den in London.