Millwall 0–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

H. Cornick 83'

Z. Vyner 53'

3/4/2025

Championship · Round 35The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Millwall44%

×Draw27%

Bristol City29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.04

Millwall

1.35

Bristol City

1.04

Millwall creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 43 away

1.34

creates per match

1.10

0.99

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Millwall

1.34

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Millwall

0.99

Bristol City

1.36

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Millwall-0.07on par

Bristol City+0.02on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

56%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Bristol City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

39%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

60%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 37 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.36 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.34 + Bristol City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Millwall defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millwall scores more

44%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

29%

Millwall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Z. Vyner

Bristol City · D

8.0

Match Events

46'

A. Emakhu← O. Azeez

53'

Z. Vyner↳ C. Pring

69'

J. Coburn← L. Cundle

69'

H. Cornick← S. Armstrong

69'

H. Roberts← M. Sykes

76'

S. Bell← C. Pring

80'

G. Saville← B. Mitchell

80'

G. Honeyman← C. De Norre

82'

J. Williams← S. Twine

83'

H. Cornick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots11

0.83Expected Goals (xG)1.83

4Corners6

5Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots11

1On Target5

8Off Target4

4Blocked2

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

456Total Passes434

359Accurate Passes316

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.41Goals Prevented0.41

Discipline

5Fouls11

3Offsides0