Bristol City 4–3 Millwall: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Millwall

S. Twine 88'

F. Mayulu 78'

S. Armstrong 12'

A. Mehmeti 3'

D. Watmore 64'

T. Bradshaw 54' (pen)

R. Esse 51'

8/17/2024

Championship · Round 2Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Bristol City36%

×Draw26%

Millwall38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.38

Bristol City

1.35

Millwall

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

1.35

creates per match

1.40

1.35

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Bristol City

1.35

Millwall

1.40

allows per match

Bristol City

1.35

Millwall

1.34

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.07on par

Millwall-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

62%

Bristol City or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

64%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

74%

Bristol City 2+ goals

39%

Bristol City 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

40%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

49%

Millwall (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.35 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Millwall attack 1.40 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more

36%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

38%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Williams

Bristol City · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

A. Mehmeti

12'

S. Armstrong↳ M. Bird

49'

Casper De Norre

50'

Mark Sykes

51'

R. Esse↳ G. Honeyman

54'

T. BradshawPenalty

62'

F. Mayulu← S. Armstrong

62'

64'

67'

77'

77'

A. Emakhu← D. Watmore

78'

F. Mayulu↳ M. Bird

83'

M. Langstaff← T. Bradshaw

86'

G. Earthy← M. Sykes

88'

S. Twine↳ J. Williams

89'

T. Leahy← S. Hutchinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolMillwall

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots15

2.74Expected Goals (xG)2.22

5Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

6On Target4

4Off Target5

1Blocked6

9Inside Box13

2Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

517Total Passes319

424Accurate Passes217

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.52Goals Prevented-0.52

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1