Bristol City 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

M. Ivanovic 59'

12/6/2025

Championship · Round 19Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bristol City31%

×Draw26%

Millwall43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.41

Bristol City

1.16

Millwall

1.41

Millwall creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

1.07

creates per match

1.40

1.42

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bristol City

1.07

Millwall

1.40

allows per match

Bristol City

1.42

Millwall

1.25

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City-0.07on par

Millwall-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

57%

Bristol City or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

69%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

69%

Bristol City 2+ goals

32%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Millwall 1+ goals

76%

Millwall 2+ goals

41%

Millwall 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

42%

Millwall (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.07 + Millwall defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Millwall attack 1.40 + Bristol City defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol City scores more

31%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

43%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Cooper

Millwall · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

Raees Bangura-Williams

46'

C. Neghli← C. De Norre

50'

Jake Cooper

59'

M. Ivanovic↳ R. Bangura-Williams

64'

R. McCrorie← M. Sykes

64'

S. Armstrong← J. Knight

73'

T. Ballo← R. Bangura-Williams

74'

D. McNamara← A. Emakhu

78'

Sinclair Armstrong

80'

Zak Sturge

82'

C. Pring← Neto Borges

82'

A. Doughty← D. Kelly

83'

M. Langstaff← F. Azeez

85'

Y. Hirakawa← G. Tanner

87'

Alfie Doughty

90'

Thierno Ballo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolMillwall

Overview

67%Possession33%

13Total Shots12

1.44Expected Goals (xG)0.97

8Corners1

7Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target6

3Off Target5

7Blocked1

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

477Total Passes238

360Accurate Passes140

75%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.86Goals Prevented0.86

Discipline

7Fouls18

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Millwall

Millwall beat Bristol City 1-0 in Championship on December 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Ivanovic (59').

Bristol City controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.

Bristol City vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Millwall