Millwall 0–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

M. James 90+4'

8/12/2023

Championship · Round 2The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Millwall42%

×Draw28%

Bristol City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.03

Millwall

1.29

Bristol City

1.03

Millwall creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.25

creates per match

1.04

1.02

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Millwall

1.02

Bristol City

1.33

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Millwall-0.10scores less

Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

70%

Millwall or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

58%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

72%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

64%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

59%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Millwall defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more

42%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

30%

Millwall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. James

Bristol City · M

7.5

Match Events

25'

Joe Williams

62'

T. Bradshaw← D. Watmore

63'

H. Cornick← M. Sykes

63'

K. Naismith← J. Williams

63'

67'

69'

76'

80'

G. Saville← C. De Norre

80'

81'

85'

88'

90+3'

R. Leonard← D. McNamara

90+4'

M. James

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBristol

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots14

0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.94

1Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots14

2On Target1

4Off Target7

4Blocked6

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

370Total Passes437

242Accurate Passes316

65%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Championship: Millwall 0–1 Bristol City

Bristol City beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on August 12, 2023.

Goals: M. James (90+4').

Bristol City controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 0–1 Bristol City