Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Millwall vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
12/29/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Millwall42%
×Draw28%
Bristol City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.29
Bristol City
1.03

Millwall creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Bristol City
1.04

allows per match

Millwall
1.02
Bristol City
1.33

finishing

Millwall-0.10scores less
Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
70%
Millwall or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
72%
Millwall 2+ goals
37%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
Bristol City 1+ goals
64%
Bristol City 2+ goals
28%
Bristol City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
59%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Millwall defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more
42%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
30%

Millwall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. CooperMillwallMillwall · D
7.3

Match Events

60'
C. Styles← T. Burey
69'
N. Wells← T. Conway
78'
B. Afobe← T. Bradshaw
79'
J. Shackleton← G. Saville
79'
G. Honeyman← A. Voglsammer

Possession

57%Millwall

Shots

9Millwall

Pass accuracy

53%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallBristol
Overview
57%Possession43%
9Total Shots6
3Corners4
8Fouls3
Shots
9Total Shots6
0On Target2
7Off Target4
2Blocked0
7Inside Box5
2Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
447Total Passes347
326Accurate Passes222
73%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls3
2Offsides2

Championship: Millwall 0–0 Bristol City

Millwall and Bristol City drew 0-0 in Championship on December 29, 2022.

Millwall controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Den in London.