Millwall 4–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bristol City

T. Bradshaw 58'

B. Mitchell 52'

S. Malone 31'

J. Wallace 5'

T. Conway 16'

5/1/2021

Championship · Round 45The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Millwall42%

×Draw28%

Bristol City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.06

Millwall

1.30

Bristol City

1.06

Millwall creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

1.26

creates per match

1.10

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Bristol City

1.34

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

70%

Millwall or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

58%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

29%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

58%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more

42%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

30%

Millwall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

S. Malone

Millwall · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

J. Wallace↳ S. Malone

16'

T. Conway↳ H. Lansbury

31'

S. Malone

45'

Billy Mitchell

46'

J. Dasilva← T. Rowe

46'

A. Scott← H. Lansbury

52'

B. Mitchell

58'

T. Bradshaw

63'

A. Semenyo← T. Conway

63'

S. Sessegnon← J. Hunt

68'

Dan McNamara

68'

S. Williams← B. Mitchell

68'

C. Mahoney← J. Wallace

73'

Nathan Baker

74'

J. Böðvarsson← T. Bradshaw

77'

Á. Nagy← N. Wells

84'

B. Thompson← R. Woods

84'

H. Muller← D. McNamara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBristol

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots4

5Corners0

13Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots4

12On Target1

4Off Target3

4Blocked0

14Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

555Total Passes416

460Accurate Passes316

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Millwall vs Bristol City

Millwall beat Bristol City 4-1 in Championship on May 1, 2021.

Goals: J. Wallace (5'), T. Conway (16'), S. Malone (31'), B. Mitchell (52'), T. Bradshaw (58').

Millwall controlled possession (57%) and registered 20 shots to 4.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Millwall vs Bristol City