Millwall 1–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol City

M. Smith 51'

Pedro Pereira 10'

2/29/2020

Championship · Round 36The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Millwall41%

×Draw28%

Bristol City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Millwall

1.29

Bristol City

1.07

Millwall creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

1.25

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Bristol City

1.34

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

69%

Millwall or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

59%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

72%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

66%

Bristol City 2+ goals

29%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

57%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Millwall scores more

41%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

31%

Millwall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Hutchinson

Millwall · D

7.5

Match Events

10'

Pedro Pereira

51'

M. Smith

69'

N. Wells← J. Paterson

74'

M. Bennett← C. Mahoney

75'

J. Böðvarsson← M. Smith

83'

Jayson Molumby

84'

N. Eliasson← C. ODowda

85'

A. O'Brien← T. Bradshaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots3

5Corners7

14Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots3

5On Target1

8Off Target1

0Blocked1

11Inside Box3

2Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

365Total Passes371

242Accurate Passes252

66%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0