Millwall 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

L. Gregory 41'

F. Diedhiou 81'

J. Paterson 76'

4/30/2019

Championship · Round 38The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Millwall41%

×Draw28%

Bristol City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Millwall

1.29

Bristol City

1.07

Millwall creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

1.25

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Bristol City

1.34

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

69%

Millwall or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

59%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

72%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

66%

Bristol City 2+ goals

29%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

57%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Millwall scores more

41%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

31%

Millwall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Paterson

Bristol City · M

8.4

Match Events

24'

Josh Brownhill

30'

E. Pisano← J. Hunt

41'

L. Gregory↳ S. Morison

45'

46'

58'

62'

76'

78'

C. McLaughlin← J. Meredith

81'

F. Diedhiou↳ J. Paterson

87'

T. Elliott← S. Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBristol

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots14

3Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots14

5On Target4

7Off Target7

4Blocked3

11Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

360Total Passes468

249Accurate Passes353

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1