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Millwall vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
B. Afobe 67'
D. Solanke 44'
11/24/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Millwall32%
×Draw28%
Bournemouth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.08
Bournemouth
1.22

Bournemouth creates 13% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 50 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.24
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Bournemouth
0.92

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
61%
Millwall or Bournemouth
72%
Draw or Bournemouth
68%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
13%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
66%
Millwall 2+ goals
29%
Millwall 3+ goals
10%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
70%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
34%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
45%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Millwall scores more
32%
level
28%
Bournemouth scores more
39%

Bournemouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
B. AfobeMillwallMillwall · F
7.5

Match Events

24'
Gavin Kilkenny
44'
D. Solanke
63'
L. Cook← G. Kilkenny
65'
T. Bradshaw← M. Bennett
66'
S. Ojo← S. Malone
67'
B. Afobe↳ T. Bradshaw
79'
E. Marcondes← J. Lowe
80'
Lewis Cook
83'
Billy Mitchell
90+2'
M. Rogers← J. Anthony

Possession

49%Millwall

Shots

8Millwall

Pass accuracy

48%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallBournemouth
Overview
49%Possession51%
8Total Shots10
6Corners2
7Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots10
1On Target3
5Off Target0
2Blocked7
5Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
381Total Passes426
271Accurate Passes327
71%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
6Offsides1

Match Recap: Millwall vs Bournemouth

Millwall and Bournemouth drew 1-1 in Championship on November 24, 2021.

Goals: D. Solanke (44'), B. Afobe (67').

Bournemouth controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Den in London.