Millwall 1–4 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Bournemouth

J. Wallace 49'

D. Solanke 67'

D. Brooks 44'

A. Groeneveld 27'

P. Billing 16'

4/21/2021

Championship · Round 43The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Millwall32%

×Draw28%

Bournemouth39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.22

Millwall

1.08

Bournemouth

1.22

Bournemouth creates 13% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 50 away

1.24

creates per match

1.40

1.04

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Millwall

1.24

Bournemouth

1.40

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Bournemouth

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

61%

Millwall or Bournemouth

72%

Draw or Bournemouth

68%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

13%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

66%

Millwall 2+ goals

29%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

70%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

34%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

45%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Millwall scores more

32%

level

28%

Bournemouth scores more

39%

Bournemouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

P. Billing

Bournemouth · M

9.3

Match Events

16'

P. Billing↳ D. Solanke

27'

A. Groeneveld↳ A. Begović

40'

Diego Rico← L. Kelly

44'

D. Brooks↳ D. Solanke

46'

Scott Malone

46'

C. Mahoney← A. Pearce

49'

J. Wallace

65'

Jake Cooper

67'

D. Solanke↳ P. Billing

69'

S. Surridge← D. Solanke

69'

J. Stanislas← A. Groeneveld

78'

S. Williams← R. Woods

78'

T. Burey← J. Wallace

78'

T. Bradshaw← K. Zohorè

80'

Dan McNamara

80'

Philip Billing

85'

A. Smith← D. Brooks

85'

J. Wilshere← B. Pearson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBournemouth

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots14

3Corners1

10Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target7

2Off Target6

2Blocked1

4Inside Box12

3Outside Box2

Passing

35%Possession65%

336Total Passes624

235Accurate Passes524

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1

Championship: Millwall 1–4 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Millwall 4-1 in Championship on April 21, 2021.

Goals: P. Billing (16'), A. Groeneveld (27'), D. Brooks (44'), J. Wallace (49'), D. Solanke (67').

Bournemouth controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 1–4 Bournemouth