Bournemouth 1–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

K. Moore 81'

5/7/2022

Championship · Round 46Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth48%

×Draw26%

Millwall26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.01

Bournemouth

1.49

Millwall

1.01

Bournemouth creates 48% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 189 away

1.75

creates per match

1.04

0.98

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Millwall

1.04

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Millwall

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

74%

Bournemouth or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

52%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

24%

Millwall wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

44%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

19%

Millwall 1+ goals

64%

Millwall 2+ goals

27%

Millwall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

65%

Millwall (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.49

Millwall attack 1.04 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bournemouth scores more

48%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

26%

Bournemouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Hutchinson

Millwall · D

8.2

Match Events

46'

M. Kieftenbeld← M. Wallace

58'

J. Wallace← M. Bennett

61'

S. Dembélé← R. Brady

68'

Maikel Kieftenbeld

69'

K. Moore← E. Marcondes

75'

T. Bradshaw← R. Leonard

77'

P. Billing← L. Cook

81'

K. Moore↳ P. Billing

82'

George Saville

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthMillwall

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots8

6Corners5

8Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots8

3On Target3

7Off Target5

10Blocked0

18Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

576Total Passes365

493Accurate Passes282

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3