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Miedz Legnica vs Korona Kielce — Ekstraklasa 2026

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
Á. Henríquez 80' (pen), 30'
K. Petrov 83'
J. Łukowski 53'
9/11/2022EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 9Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Miedz Legnica37%
×Draw27%
Korona Kielce37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.27
Korona Kielce
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 100 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.00
Korona Kielce
0.94

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.53

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
63%
Miedz Legnica or Korona Kielce
73%
Draw or Korona Kielce
63%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
16%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
72%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
36%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
14%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
72%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
36%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
50%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.00 + Korona Kielce defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Korona Kielce attack 0.94 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
37%
level
27%
Korona Kielce scores more
37%

Miedz Legnica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Á. HenríquezMiedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica · F
8.3

Match Events

30'
Konrad Forenc
30'
Á. Henríquez↳ L. Narsingh
40'
Marcin Szpakowski
44'
Jerónimo Cacciabue
46'
O. Sewerzyński← M. Szpakowski
46'
R. Deaconu← E. Shikavka
53'
J. Łukowski↳ D. Błanik
67'
J. Kiełb← D. Błanik
67'
J. Podgórski← J. Łukowski
68'
Łukasz Sierpina
69'
M. Kostka← L. Narsingh
75'
Nemanja Mijušković
77'
S. Matuszek← J. Cacciabue
78'
Maxime DominguezPenalty confirmed
80'
Á. HenríquezPenalty
81'
J. Nojszewski← A. Deja
83'
K. Petrov↳ J. Kiełb
85'
Koldo Obieta← Á. Henríquez
85'
M. Lehaire← M. Dominguez
85'
K. Zapolnik← O. Kobacki
88'
Jacek Kiełb
90+5'
Kyrylo Petrov

Possession

53%Miedz

Shots

15Miedz

Pass accuracy

52%Miedz

Statistics

MiedzKorona
Overview
53%Possession47%
15Total Shots12
1Corners4
14Fouls22
Shots
15Total Shots12
5On Target6
6Off Target5
4Blocked1
9Inside Box9
6Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
423Total Passes373
334Accurate Passes272
79%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls22
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides0

Ekstraklasa: Miedz Legnica 2–2 Korona Kielce

Miedz Legnica and Korona Kielce drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on September 11, 2022.

Goals: Á. Henríquez (30', 80' pen), J. Łukowski (53'), K. Petrov (83').

Miedz Legnica controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.