Miedz Legnica 1–1 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Korona Kielce

Chuca 13'

D. Błanik 33'

3/18/2022

I Liga · Round 24Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Miedz Legnica48%

×Draw25%

Korona Kielce27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Miedz Legnica

1.54

Korona Kielce

1.08

Miedz Legnica creates 43% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

1.80

creates per match

1.03

1.14

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Korona Kielce

1.03

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Korona Kielce

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

73%

Miedz Legnica or Korona Kielce

75%

Draw or Korona Kielce

52%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

24%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

79%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

45%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

20%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

66%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

29%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

64%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Korona Kielce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Korona Kielce attack 1.03 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

48%

level

25%

Korona Kielce scores more

27%

Miedz Legnica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

14'

24'

33'

43'

44'

54'

59'

64'

64'

75'

J. Górski← J. Łukowski

79'

S. Matuszek← D. Tront

80'

M. Lehaire← Chuca

83'

P. Malarczyk

83'

P. Lenarcik

86'

O. Sewerzyński← Filipe Oliveira

90'

M. Szpakowski

90+3'

M. Zebić← J. Podgórski

Miedz

Korona

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: W. Łobodziński

79'▲S. Matuszek←▼D. Tront

80'▲M. Lehaire←▼Chuca

Miedz Legnica substitutes

MatuszekLehaireGarciaBalcewiczLewandowskiDrzazgaAbramowiczAzikiewiczHoogenhout

Manager: L. Ojrzynski

75'▲J. Górski←▼J. Łukowski

86'▲O. Sewerzyński←▼Filipe Oliveira

90+3'▲M. Zebić←▼J. Podgórski

Korona Kielce substitutes

GórskiSewerzyńskiZebićAmrozińskiKiełbStrzebońskiZapytowskiSeweryśTakáč