Korona Kielce 0–0 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Miedz Legnica

3/26/2021

I Liga · Round 22Suzuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Korona Kielce38%

×Draw28%

Miedz Legnica35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Korona Kielce

1.23

Miedz Legnica

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 103 away

1.29

creates per match

1.22

1.11

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.29

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.11

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

65%

Korona Kielce or Miedz Legnica

72%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

62%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

16%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

71%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

35%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

13%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

69%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

33%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

52%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.29 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Korona Kielce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

38%

level

28%

Miedz Legnica scores more

35%

Korona Kielce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Lukowski

55'

P. Łysiak← M. Pervan

67'

D. Lisowski

69'

M. Lehaire← K. Drzazga

72'

M. Biernat

73'

Hugo Díaz← É. Thiakane

77'

P. Makuch

80'

M. Śliwa← M. Kaczmarek

80'

Joan Román← K. Zapolnik

81'

J. Kiełb← J. Łukowski

Korona

Miedz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Kuzera

55'▲P. Łysiak←▼M. Pervan

73'▲Hugo Díaz←▼É. Thiakane

81'▲J. Kiełb←▼J. Łukowski

Korona Kielce substitutes

ŁysiakDíazKiełb

Manager: J. Skrobacz

69'▲M. Lehaire←▼K. Drzazga

80'▲M. Śliwa←▼M. Kaczmarek

80'▲Joan Román←▼K. Zapolnik

Miedz Legnica substitutes

LehaireŚliwaRomán