Miedz Legnica 3–1 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

Bruno Garcia 87'

M. Dominguez 61'

K. Zapolnik 51'

M. Szuszkiewicz 67'

11/15/2021

I Liga · Round 17Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miedz Legnica57%

×Draw22%

Górnik Polkowice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.07

Miedz Legnica

1.93

Górnik Polkowice

1.07

Miedz Legnica creates 80% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

1.14

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Górnik Polkowice

1.00

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Górnik Polkowice

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

79%

Miedz Legnica or Górnik Polkowice

78%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

43%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

34%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

85%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

57%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

30%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

66%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

29%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

73%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.93

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

57%

level

22%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

21%

Miedz Legnica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

A. Purzycki

37'

M. Garuch← C. Martínez

42'

48'

50'

51'

59'

B. Żołądź← A. Purzycki

59'

M. Szuszkiewicz← M. Pałaszewski

61'

M. Dominguez

62'

Chuca← M. Lehaire

67'

M. Szuszkiewicz

74'

N. Mijuskovic

75'

D. Radziemski← M. Opałacz

75'

M. Bancewicz← E. Sobków

85'

Bruno Garcia← K. Zapolnik

85'

S. Matuszek← M. Dominguez

85'

F. Baranowski← M. Piątkowski

87'

Bruno Garcia

Miedz

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Zapolnik

Makuch

Manager: W. Łobodziński

37'▲M. Garuch←▼C. Martínez

62'▲Chuca←▼M. Lehaire

85'▲Bruno Garcia←▼K. Zapolnik

85'▲S. Matuszek←▼M. Dominguez

Miedz Legnica substitutes

GaruchChucaGarciaMatuszekLewandowskiAbramowiczAzikiewiczHoogenhoutStrozynski

Manager: P. Barylski

59'▲B. Żołądź←▼A. Purzycki

59'▲M. Szuszkiewicz←▼M. Pałaszewski

75'▲D. Radziemski←▼M. Opałacz

75'▲M. Bancewicz←▼E. Sobków

85'▲F. Baranowski←▼M. Piątkowski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

ŻołądźSzuszkiewiczRadziemskiBancewiczBaranowskiMazurowskiKrakowskiSzymańskiBiernat

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Górnik Polkowice

Miedz Legnica beat Górnik Polkowice 3-1 in I Liga on November 15, 2021.

Goals: K. Zapolnik (51'), M. Dominguez (61'), M. Szuszkiewicz (67'), Bruno Garcia (87').

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.

Miedz Legnica vs Górnik Polkowice — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Górnik Polkowice