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Górnik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
1 – 5
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Górnik Polkowice55%
×Draw20%
Miedz Legnica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
2.21
Miedz Legnica
1.42

Górnik Polkowice creates 56% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.92
Miedz Legnica
1.00

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.83
Miedz Legnica
2.50

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
76%
Górnik Polkowice or Miedz Legnica
80%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
45%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
34%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
89%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
65%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
38%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
76%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
41%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
69%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.92 + Miedz Legnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

Miedz Legnica attack 1.00 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
55%
level
20%
Miedz Legnica scores more
24%

Górnik Polkowice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica

Miedz Legnica beat Górnik Polkowice 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.