Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Miedz Legnica

M. Lehaire 33'

5/22/2022

I Liga · Round 34Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice32%

×Draw29%

Miedz Legnica39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.17

Górnik Polkowice

1.02

Miedz Legnica

1.17

Miedz Legnica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

0.88

creates per match

1.22

1.12

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Miedz Legnica

1.22

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Miedz Legnica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

61%

Górnik Polkowice or Miedz Legnica

71%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

68%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

12%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

64%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

27%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

8%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

69%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

33%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

45%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Miedz Legnica attack 1.22 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

32%

level

29%

Miedz Legnica scores more

39%

Miedz Legnica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

33'

41'

52'

63'

A. Kozubal← B. Żołądź

63'

A. Purzycki← D. Makuch

63'

R. Gegedosh← M. Szuszkiewicz

65'

66'

67'

71'

71'

F. Baranowski← A. Hafez

72'

A. Kozubal

74'

M. Kaczmarek← Bruno Garcia

80'

D. Radziemski← K. Fryzowicz

82'

T. Mamis← S. Stróżyński

82'

M. Letkiewicz← M. Lehaire

88'

A. Madaliński← M. Abramowicz

88'

K. Chmielewski← M. Bednarski

Górnik

Miedz

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Szydelko

63'▲A. Kozubal←▼B. Żołądź

63'▲A. Purzycki←▼D. Makuch

63'▲R. Gegedosh←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

71'▲F. Baranowski←▼A. Hafez

80'▲D. Radziemski←▼K. Fryzowicz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KozubalPurzyckiGegedoshBaranowskiRadziemskiKrakowskiWacławczykMalecSowiński

Manager: W. Łobodziński

74'▲M. Kaczmarek←▼Bruno Garcia

82'▲T. Mamis←▼S. Stróżyński

82'▲M. Letkiewicz←▼M. Lehaire

88'▲A. Madaliński←▼M. Abramowicz

88'▲K. Chmielewski←▼M. Bednarski

Miedz Legnica substitutes

KaczmarekMamisLetkiewiczMadalińskiChmielewskiMatuszekKlimkiewicz

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica

Miedz Legnica beat Górnik Polkowice 1-0 in I Liga on May 22, 2022.

Goals: M. Lehaire (33').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.

Górnik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Miedz Legnica