Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Middlesbrough vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
Preview
11:30
West Brom
West Brom
8/29/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Riverside Stadium
Big match
42%
Middlesbrough
model favours
42%28%30%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Middlesbrough42%
×Draw28%
West Brom30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.31
West Brom
1.07

Middlesbrough creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.78
West Brom
1.48

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.67
West Brom
0.84

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.03on par
West Brom-0.68scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
70%
Middlesbrough or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
58%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
19%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
73%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
38%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
66%
West Brom 2+ goals
29%
West Brom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
58%
West Brom (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.78 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.31

West Brom attack 1.48 + Middlesbrough defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
42%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
30%

Middlesbrough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Middlesbrough have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Middlesbrough sit 5, West Brom 19 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Middlesbrough
Attack-heavy
West Brom
Attack-heavy
60%Possession55%
84%Pass accuracy82%
15.9ShotsBiggest gap13.9
1.61xG1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MiddlesbroughWest Brom

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

5
Middlesbrough
2
Draws
0
West Brom
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 43%
3–22–12–01–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Middlesbrough
LDDDW
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Middlesbrough face West Brom (Championship)

Championship returns with Middlesbrough hosting West Brom. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Middlesbrough host West Brom at Riverside Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.