Middlesbrough 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

I. Jones 10'

J. Swift 51'

7/30/2022

Championship · Round 1Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 52+ matches

Middlesbrough45%

×Draw27%

West Brom28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.05

Middlesbrough

1.40

West Brom

1.05

Middlesbrough creates 33% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 52 away

1.55

creates per match

1.14

0.96

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.55

West Brom

1.14

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

West Brom

1.24

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

West Brom-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

72%

Middlesbrough or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

55%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

21%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

75%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

41%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

28%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

61%

West Brom (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 66 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.55 + West Brom defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

West Brom attack 1.14 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

45%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

28%

Middlesbrough at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Bola

Middlesbrough · D

7.3

Match Events

10'

40'

51'

59'

61'

63'

63'

68'

G. Diangana← M. Phillips

78'

D. Dike← K. Ahearne-Grant

90'

A. Mowatt← J. Molumby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWest

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots12

4Corners3

7Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots12

2On Target5

8Off Target4

6Blocked3

9Inside Box9

7Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

500Total Passes304

406Accurate Passes216

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1