Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

M. Forss 90+5'

C. Archer 58', 52'

C. Akpom 22'

3/18/2023

Championship · Round 38Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Middlesbrough51%

×Draw25%

Preston23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.98

Middlesbrough

1.58

Preston

0.98

Middlesbrough creates 61% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 56 away

1.55

creates per match

1.01

0.96

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.55

Preston

1.01

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Preston

1.62

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

77%

Middlesbrough or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

49%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

27%

Preston wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

47%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

21%

Preston 1+ goals

62%

Preston 2+ goals

26%

Preston 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

69%

Preston (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 66 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.62 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.55 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Preston attack 1.01 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

51%

level

25%

Preston scores more

23%

Middlesbrough at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Archer

Middlesbrough · F

9.0

Match Events

22'

C. Akpom↳ C. Archer

28'

A. Hughes← G. Cunningham

45+2'

Andrew Hughes

46'

T. Parrott← R. Ledson

50'

52'

58'

67'

72'

A. Mowatt← H. Hackney

72'

76'

76'

78'

82'

82'

D. Barlaser← J. Howson

85'

B. Woodburn← A. Browne

86'

R. Brady← Álvaro Fernández

86'

88'

88'

90+4'

90+4'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughPreston

Overview

70%Possession30%

16Total Shots7

7Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots7

5On Target3

6Off Target1

5Blocked3

8Inside Box7

8Outside Box0

Passing

70%Possession30%

645Total Passes272

561Accurate Passes191

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Championship: Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston

Middlesbrough beat Preston 4-0 in Championship on March 18, 2023.

Goals: C. Akpom (22'), C. Archer (52', 58'), M. Forss (90+5').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough vs Preston — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston