Middlesbrough 1–2 Preston: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

P. McNair 33'

E. Riis 81'

C. Evans 77'

11/23/2021

Championship · Round 19Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Middlesbrough52%

×Draw25%

Preston23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.97

Middlesbrough

1.58

Preston

0.97

Middlesbrough creates 63% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 60 away

1.54

creates per match

0.99

0.96

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.54

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Preston

1.62

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

77%

Middlesbrough or Preston

75%

Draw or Preston

48%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

27%

Preston wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

47%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

21%

Preston 1+ goals

62%

Preston 2+ goals

25%

Preston 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

69%

Preston (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Preston attack 0.99 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

52%

level

25%

Preston scores more

23%

Middlesbrough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

P. McNair

Middlesbrough · D

8.3

Match Events

33'

P. McNair↳ J. Howson

53'

O. Hernández← D. Watmore

53'

C. Evans← S. Maguire

63'

Alan Browne

72'

S. Sinclair← T. Barkhuizen

72'

D. Johnson← A. McCann

75'

Ched Evans

77'

C. Evans↳ B. Whiteman

81'

E. Riis

83'

U. Ikpeazu← L. Peltier

85'

Joshua Earl

90+2'

Daniel Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughPreston

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots7

11Corners4

9Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target1

7Blocked4

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

418Total Passes372

331Accurate Passes268

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls17

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0