Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Middlesbrough vs Hull City — Premier League 2026

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
G. Ramírez 60'
12/5/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Riverside

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Middlesbrough49%
×Draw28%
Hull City24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.38
Hull City
0.88

Middlesbrough creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 39 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
0.89
Hull City
0.54

allows per match

Middlesbrough
1.21
Hull City
1.87

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
76%
Middlesbrough or Hull City
72%
Draw or Hull City
51%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
23%
Hull City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
75%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
40%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
59%
Hull City 2+ goals
22%
Hull City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
67%
Hull City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.87 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 0.89 + Hull City defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hull City attack 0.54 + Middlesbrough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
49%
level
28%
Hull City scores more
24%

Middlesbrough at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
G. RamírezMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · F
8.0

Match Events

15'
Jake Livermore
60'
G. Ramírez↳ V. Fischer
62'
T. Huddlestone← J. Livermore
62'
J. Bowen← R. Mason
72'
Fábio
81'
C. Stuani← V. Fischer
81'
D. Meyler← M. Henriksen
87'
S. Downing← G. Ramírez

Possession

60%Middlesbrough

Shots

16Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

53%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughHull
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots6
13Corners7
6Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots6
4On Target2
5Off Target3
7Blocked1
10Inside Box3
6Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
601Total Passes395
524Accurate Passes300
87%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Hull City

Middlesbrough beat Hull City 1-0 in Premier League on December 5, 2016.

Goals: G. Ramírez (60').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Riverside in Middlesbrough.