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Hull City vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
J. Gelhardt 62' (pen)
R. McGree 44'
M. Whittaker 35'
A. Gilbert 32'
D. Strelec 9'
12/5/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Hull City31%
×Draw28%
Middlesbrough40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.06
Middlesbrough
1.24

Middlesbrough creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.14
Middlesbrough
1.35

allows per match

Hull City
1.13
Middlesbrough
0.98

finishing

Hull City-0.04on par
Middlesbrough+0.09on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
60%
Hull City or Middlesbrough
72%
Draw or Middlesbrough
69%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
12%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
65%
Hull City 2+ goals
29%
Hull City 3+ goals
9%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
71%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
35%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
44%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.98 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.14 + Middlesbrough defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Middlesbrough attack 1.35 + Hull City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
31%
level
28%
Middlesbrough scores more
40%

Middlesbrough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
A. GilbertMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · M
9.0

Match Events

9'
D. Strelec↳ M. Whittaker
32'
A. Gilbert↳ T. Conway
35'
M. Whittaker↳ A. Gilbert
44'
R. McGree↳ A. Bangura
46'
C. Hughes← A. Hadziahmetovic
46'
M. Belloumi← K. Joseph
58'
Regan Slater
62'
J. GelhardtPenalty
66'
L. Millar← E. Destan
68'
S. Silvera← T. Conway
68'
G. Edmundson← A. Bangura
74'
D. Gyabi← J. Gelhardt
75'
B. Akintola← R. Slater
79'
S. Nypan← M. Whittaker
79'
M. K. Sene← D. Strelec
86'
D. Burgzorg← R. McGree

Possession

45%Hull

Shots

5Hull

Pass accuracy

48%Hull

Statistics

HullMiddlesbrough
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots10
1.04Expected Goals (xG)1.29
2Corners5
17Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots10
2On Target5
2Off Target2
1Blocked3
4Inside Box5
1Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
400Total Passes491
311Accurate Passes412
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
-0.17Goals Prevented-0.17
Discipline
17Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Hull City 4-1 in Championship on December 5, 2025.

Goals: D. Strelec (9'), A. Gilbert (32'), M. Whittaker (35'), R. McGree (44'), J. Gelhardt (62' pen).

Middlesbrough controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.