Hull City 4–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Hull City

1.42

Middlesbrough

1.08

Hull City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

1.26

creates per match

0.53

1.64

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Middlesbrough

0.53

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

Middlesbrough

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

71%

Hull City or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

55%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

22%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

76%

Hull City 2+ goals

41%

Hull City 3+ goals

17%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

66%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

29%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

61%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Middlesbrough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Middlesbrough attack 0.53 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hull City scores more

45%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

29%

Hull City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Adama Traoré

Middlesbrough · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

Álvaro Negredo↳ Adama Traoré

13'

L. Marković

19'

Sam Clucas

21'

Adam Clayton

27'

O. Niasse↳ A. Hernández

33'

A. Hernández↳ K. Grosicki

45+1'

M. de Roon↳ B. Gibson

51'

Evandro← A. Hernández

59'

A. Guédioura← J. Husband

70'

H. Maguire↳ A. Robertson

71'

P. Bamford← Álvaro Negredo

81'

M. Dawson← H. Maguire

81'

C. Stuani← R. Gestede

85'

Alfred N'Diaye

88'

M. Henriksen← K. Grosicki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullMiddlesbrough

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots12

8Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots12

5On Target4

7Off Target4

5Blocked4

15Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

400Total Passes433

307Accurate Passes326

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1