Middlesbrough 3–0 Charlton: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

Daniel Ayala 78'

A. Adomah 66'

D. Nugent 60'

10/31/2015

Championship · Round 14Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Middlesbrough52%

×Draw25%

Charlton23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.93

Middlesbrough

1.56

Charlton

0.93

Middlesbrough creates 68% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 21 away

1.56

creates per match

0.89

0.97

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.56

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.97

Charlton

1.55

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

77%

Middlesbrough or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

48%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

27%

Charlton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

46%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

21%

Charlton 1+ goals

61%

Charlton 2+ goals

24%

Charlton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

70%

Charlton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.56 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Charlton attack 0.89 + Middlesbrough defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

52%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

23%

Middlesbrough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

D. Nugent

Middlesbrough · F

8.4

Match Events

53'

60'

61'

64'

66'

A. Adomah↳ Nsue

69'

R. Ghoochannejhad← E. Ba

76'

Patrick Bauer

78'

Daniel Ayala↳ D. Nugent

79'

J. Stephens← Daniel Ayala

79'

F. Moussa← K. Ahearne-Grant

80'

C. De Pena← S. Downing

82'

Kike← D. Fabbrini

87'

Carlos De Pena

88'

Chris Solly

89'

Reza Ghoochannejhad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughCharlton

Overview

73%Possession27%

26Total Shots5

15Corners2

0Fouls0

Shots

26Total Shots5

10On Target1

9Off Target1

7Blocked3

12Inside Box2

14Outside Box3

Passing

73%Possession27%

719Total Passes264

616Accurate Passes161

86%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Championship: Middlesbrough 3–0 Charlton

Middlesbrough beat Charlton 3-0 in Championship on October 31, 2015.

Goals: D. Nugent (60'), A. Adomah (66'), Daniel Ayala (78').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (73%) and registered 26 shots to 5.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Middlesbrough 3–0 Charlton