Charlton 2–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

C. Harriott 80'

Jorge Teixeira 57'

3/13/2016

Championship · Round 37The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton33%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Charlton

1.18

Middlesbrough

1.35

Middlesbrough creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 63 away

1.12

creates per match

1.37

1.32

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Charlton

1.12

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Charlton

1.32

Middlesbrough

1.23

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

59%

Charlton or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

67%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

13%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

69%

Charlton 2+ goals

33%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

45%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more

33%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

41%

Middlesbrough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

Jorge Teixeira

Charlton · D

8.4

Match Events

57'

Jorge Teixeira↳ J. Guðmundsson

60'

Jorge Teixeira

64'

Alou Diarra

67'

Jordan Rhodes

74'

C. Stuani← S. Downing

74'

D. Nugent← J. Rhodes

75'

Adam Clayton

78'

R. Ghoochannejhad← A. Lookman

80'

C. Harriott

81'

Callum Harriott

88'

Z. Bergdich← C. Harriott

90'

Morgan Fox

90+3'

H. Lennon← J. Guðmundsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonMiddlesbrough

Overview

38%Possession62%

11Total Shots13

2Corners12

0Fouls0

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target6

3Off Target2

4Blocked5

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

366Total Passes561

260Accurate Passes463

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Championship: Charlton 2–0 Middlesbrough

Charlton beat Middlesbrough 2-0 in Championship on March 13, 2016.

Goals: Jorge Teixeira (57'), C. Harriott (80').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Charlton 2–0 Middlesbrough