Charlton 0–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Middlesbrough

P. McNair 17'

3/7/2020

Championship · Round 37The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton33%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Charlton

1.18

Middlesbrough

1.35

Middlesbrough creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 63 away

1.12

creates per match

1.37

1.32

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Charlton

1.12

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Charlton

1.32

Middlesbrough

1.23

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

59%

Charlton or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

67%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

13%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

69%

Charlton 2+ goals

33%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

45%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more

33%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

41%

Middlesbrough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Howson

Middlesbrough · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

Ryan Shotton

17'

P. McNair↳ R. Gestede

45'

46'

53'

63'

66'

A. Doughty← J. Williams

81'

G. Saville← P. McNair

83'

T. Hemed← B. Purrington

87'

D. Spence← M. Tavernier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonMiddlesbrough

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots23

3Corners9

9Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots23

3On Target4

7Off Target10

3Blocked9

8Inside Box10

5Outside Box13

Passing

45%Possession55%

338Total Passes422

235Accurate Passes313

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0