Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Middlesbrough vs Burnley — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Burnley
Burnley
C. Akpom 48' (pen)
C. Roberts 66'
A. Barnes 12'
4/7/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Middlesbrough38%
×Draw28%
Burnley34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.20
Burnley
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.54
Burnley
1.28

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Burnley
0.86

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less
Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
66%
Middlesbrough or Burnley
72%
Draw or Burnley
62%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
16%
Burnley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
70%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
34%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
12%
Burnley 1+ goals
67%
Burnley 2+ goals
31%
Burnley 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
53%
Burnley (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.20

Burnley attack 1.28 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
38%
level
28%
Burnley scores more
34%

Middlesbrough at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. BarnesBurnleyBurnley · F
7.9

Match Events

12'
A. Barnes↳ J. Brownhill
38'
Hayden Hackney
48'
C. AkpomPenalty
55'
Vitinho← A. Zaroury
66'
C. Roberts↳ N. Tella
69'
M. Crooks← C. Archer
77'
M. Forss← H. Hackney
79'
J. Cork← J. Guðmunds­son
87'
M. Obafemi← N. Tella
90+4'
Michael Obafemi

Possession

47%Middlesbrough

Shots

9Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

49%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughBurnley
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots11
1Corners2
16Fouls6
Shots
9Total Shots11
3On Target4
4Off Target4
2Blocked3
4Inside Box8
5Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
420Total Passes489
312Accurate Passes383
74%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Championship: Middlesbrough 1–2 Burnley

Burnley beat Middlesbrough 2-1 in Championship on April 7, 2023.

Goals: A. Barnes (12'), C. Akpom (48' pen), C. Roberts (66').

Burnley controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.