Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Middlesbrough vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
4/8/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Riverside

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Middlesbrough41%
×Draw28%
Burnley31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.29
Burnley
1.08

Middlesbrough creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 156 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
0.89
Burnley
0.96

allows per match

Middlesbrough
1.21
Burnley
1.69

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
69%
Middlesbrough or Burnley
72%
Draw or Burnley
59%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
19%
Burnley wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
72%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
37%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
14%
Burnley 1+ goals
66%
Burnley 2+ goals
29%
Burnley 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
57%
Burnley (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 0.89 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.29

Burnley attack 0.96 + Middlesbrough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
41%
level
28%
Burnley scores more
31%

Middlesbrough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
M. LowtonBurnleyBurnley · D
8.1

Match Events

45'
Stephen Ward
48'
Ashley Barnes
58'
Álvaro Negredo← C. Stuani
62'
S. Vokes← A. Gray
69'
Adama Traoré← R. Gestede
83'
P. Bamford← B. Espinosa
85'
Michael Keane
90+4'
J. Tarkowski← A. Barnes

Possession

57%Middlesbrough

Shots

13Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

52%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughBurnley
Overview
57%Possession43%
13Total Shots7
4Corners3
9Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target2
5Off Target5
3Blocked0
8Inside Box5
5Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
451Total Passes340
372Accurate Passes259
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Burnley

Middlesbrough and Burnley drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 8, 2017.

Middlesbrough controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Riverside in Middlesbrough.