Burnley 3–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

J. Howson 72' (OG)

B. Manuel 67', 60'

D. Watmore 49'

12/17/2022

Championship · Round 23Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Burnley42%

×Draw28%

Middlesbrough30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.03

Burnley

1.28

Middlesbrough

1.03

Burnley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 65 away

1.32

creates per match

1.39

0.68

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Burnley

1.32

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Burnley

0.68

Middlesbrough

1.24

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.29scores more

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

70%

Burnley or Middlesbrough

72%

Draw or Middlesbrough

58%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

19%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

64%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

28%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

59%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 18 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.32 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Burnley defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more

42%

level

28%

Middlesbrough scores more

30%

Burnley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

J. Beyer

Burnley · D

7.3

Match Events

46'

49'

58'

60'

67'

72'

Rodrigo Muniz← R. McGree

72'

J. HowsonOwn goal

75'

Jack Cork

76'

A. Barnes← B. Manuel

87'

S. Twine← J. Rodríguez

87'

D. Churlinov← J. Guðmundsson

87'

89'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyMiddlesbrough

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots4

4Corners1

13Fouls4

Shots

11Total Shots4

4On Target4

4Off Target0

3Blocked0

6Inside Box2

5Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

631Total Passes433

564Accurate Passes359

89%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls4

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3

Championship: Burnley 3–1 Middlesbrough

Burnley beat Middlesbrough 3-1 in Championship on December 17, 2022.

Goals: D. Watmore (49'), B. Manuel (60', 67'), J. Howson (72' o.g.).

Burnley controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 4.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.

Burnley vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Burnley 3–1 Middlesbrough