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Middelfart vs Esbjerg — 1. Division 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
8/2/20251. Division1. Division · Round 3Middelfart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Middelfart27%
×Draw23%
Esbjerg51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.31
Esbjerg
1.89

Esbjerg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.00
Esbjerg
1.34

allows per match

Middelfart
2.44
Esbjerg
1.63

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
49%
Middelfart or Esbjerg
77%
Draw or Esbjerg
73%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
11%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
73%
Middelfart 2+ goals
38%
Middelfart 3+ goals
14%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
85%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
56%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
34%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.00 + Esbjerg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Esbjerg attack 1.34 + Middelfart defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Middelfart scores more
27%
level
23%
Esbjerg scores more
51%

Esbjerg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs Esbjerg

Esbjerg beat Middelfart 1-0 in 1. Division on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadium in Middelfart.